And the army is probably the political institution that’s most wary of China, not least because it sees China as the main backer of the nonstate armed organizations against whom it’s been fighting these past several years. JT: What do you think most of us watching from the West are missing about what’s happening in Myanmar right now? [See also: World Review Podcast - Will democracy be restored in Myanmar?] Burma is one of the poorest countries in Asia. Ido Vock is international correspondent at the New Statesman. TM: The political crisis is taking place within the context of multiple other crises. This website uses cookies to help us give you the best experience when you visit our website. What do you think China wants to happen in Myanmar now. Friday, December 13, 2019. Burma is everything to them and all their friends and enemies are within the country. In the late 1960s, communist forces backed by China’s People’s Liberation Army invaded Myanmar, again from Yunnan, to establish a “liberated zone” across much of the region. TM: I’d be surprised if there was a clear strategy. World Review Podcast - Will democracy be restored in Myanmar? How will democracy be defined after Myanmar's military coup? The protesters have shown extraordinary courage, organisational skill and determination. JT: Do you think Washington and Beijing could work together to put pressure on the generals to restore democracy. He is the author of The Fix: How Countries Use Crises to Solve the World’s Worst Problems. Easier to imagine would be an attempt to mobilize ultranationalist sentiment within the Burmese-speaking Buddhist majority. However, it is not clear how the country goes from this situation to anything that actually can end military rule. TM: First, it’s important to express support for those protesting against a return to military rule. And it’s an economy at whose apex is not the army but transnational networks of money-making far more powerful than any institution. It’s the same area that’s home to a $75 billion a year methamphetamine industry as well as a hundreds of casinos, catering to Chinese visitors. How determined are protesters to bring down the military? Will the generals take advantage of ethnic divisions to try to peel support away from Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD? Several protesters have been killed by security forces, and Aung Sang Suu Kyi faces spurious charges, including illegally importing walkie-talkies. JT: Does the coup show that Myanmar’s experiment with democracy has failed? This wasn’t something they thought up overnight; it was something that they had been working toward for nearly 20 years. Myanmar’s economy is increasingly tied to China’s, as a provider of primary commodities. On Western sanctions, it is important to remember that the generals have few assets abroad. Big Belt and Road infrastructure projects have been slow to get off the ground, mainly because of Myanmar reticence, but other investments, by thousands of small and medium size Chinese companies, have grown enormously, as has cross-border trade. Congress and watchdogs aren’t pleased about billions of wasted taxpayer dollars in the so-called forever wars. TM: Sino-Myanmar relations have an incredibly complicated history. There’s no scenario where the economy goes into a tailspin, tens of millions of desperately poor people are left with no money and no options, and a democracy miraculously appears the next day. A million people are refugees, and hundreds of thousands of others are internally displaced. Or will democracy be harder to suppress now that the country has experienced it. The present political crisis comes at a time of already acute and rapidly escalating economic distress, in a country already facing multiple internal armed conflicts. Jonathan Tepperman: Where do you expect the protests to go from here? Some police might switch sides, but the army have made sure the police don’t matter very much. I don’t think the coup was inevitable or was something that came after months of planning. A military junta took power in 1988, ending a quarter century of self-imposed isolation and “Burmese socialism” [the ideology of the Burma Socialist Programme Party, which fused Buddhism and socialism]. What don’t we understand that we should? Its troops have been told from age 17 that the army is the only true guardian of the nation. In 1989, this communist insurgency collapsed, leaving behind several new successor armies, all with close links to China. Over two dozen nonstate armed organizations (the largest of which, closely linked to China, fields over 25,000 men), together with hundreds of ethnic-based militias, hold sway over much of the uplands. The Burmese military sees China as a strategic threat and as having supported several of the ethnic armed organisations it had been fighting these past years. They almost certainly did not expect the massive protests which followed the coup. But this didn’t happen. Author and historian Thant Myint-U said on Twitter on Thursday the country was likely “veering towards its most acute constitutional crisis since the abolition of the old junta in 2010.” They believe she is the only legitimate leader of the country. The same would be the case for India and Japan as well. Their tactics are certainly working well, but whether there will also be a real strategy for change is far less clear. Twitter: @j_tepperman. Most have never traveled, speak no foreign languages, and own no assets abroad. The military wanted a reset, one in which elections could be run again, but only after they had changed the political landscape by placing Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest and possibly de-registering her party. JT: The Biden administration has responded to the coup by announcing new sanctions. Thant (Burmese: သန့်; MLCTS: san. In the early 1950s, remnant armies of China’s nationalist government, the Kuomintang, invaded Myanmar from China’s Yunnan province and occupied much of the eastern uplands, with support from the United States. At the same time, minority communities have borne the brunt of military brutality over the decades and have no desire to live under Burmese military rule. António Guterres is the current Secretary-General of the United Nations. Now with the coup, the protests and resulting economic disruptions, it is impossible to imagine how the poor and working classes in Burma are going to be able to simply survive the weeks and months ahead. It’s an army that won’t hesitate to use deadly force if it feels necessary. After the withdrawal of the UNEF, the Voice of the Arabs radio station proclaimed on May 18, 1967: The Middle East’s Next Conflicts Won’t Be Between Arab States and Iran, China Is Losing Influence—and That Makes It Dangerous, Oh God, Not Another Long Telegram About China. Neither, especially Beijing, wants to see growing instability. China’s economic footprint in Myanmar has also grown steady over the past couple of decades. A far better understanding of this political economy is needed to really understand Myanmar’s options for the future. They also created a new market economy, one which enriched many generals as well as a new class of businesspeople. Going forward, in addition to dealing with the protests, the generals may focus on three things: broadening their allegations against the NLD beyond election fraud to include high-level corruption and foreign collusion; immediate measures to boost the economy, including through a multibillion-dollar stimulus package; and new cease-fire deals with at least some of the nonstate armed organizations. Will the government crack down harder—so far, the number of arrests and injuries have been fairly low—and will the protests die down if it does? Thant Myint-U, the author of The Hidden History of Burma, is one of the most prominent international observers of Burmese politics. China’s interests remain the same as always: ensuring stability, in particular along the border; preventing Myanmar from entering into a military alliance with rivals; and deepening economic ties. It will be difficult for the new administration to consolidate its authority anytime soon. This is a society that’s been traumatized by over seven decades of violent conflict. Others are motivated less by any loyalty to her or the NLD than by a deep hatred of military domination and a fear that their lives, like their parents’, will be destroyed by a new cycle of brutal and kleptocratic army rule. Targeted sanctions will not shift the generals’ core political calculations. A transcript of Antony Blinken’s remarks on U.S. foreign policy. If not, why not? The current commander in chief is 64 and may well want to remain in power but in civilian garb. Historian and author Thant Myint-U talks to Amanpour about the plight of the Rohingya and … The difference is that 2010 was the exit strategy for then Commander in Chief Than Shwe, who was turning 80. Thant Myint-U, the author of The Hidden History of Burma, is one of the most prominent international observers of Burmese politics. On the CDM side, any retreat at this point will be a tactical one. Targeted, sharp action to reverse the coup is urgently needed. Are they only fighting for a return to democracy, or against economic inequality and ethnic division as well? At the same time, with many protesters calling for international military intervention, it’s important not to raise unrealistic expectations that the outside world is going to fix Myanmar’s problems. Beijing’s relations with the army, in contrast, were thorny at best. It wasn’t a democracy. Could that happen here? He co-hosts our weekly global affairs podcast, World Review. In a way, it could be a repeat of 2010, when the first elections under this constitution were held, Aung San Suu Kyi was under house arrest, and the NLD was not able to participate. Thant Myint-U, the grandson of the former UN secretary-general U Thant, has been a vocal critic of the military in the international media since the coup. TM: There is nothing in the modern history of Myanmar that suggests that the army will break ranks in any significant way. Might proposed sanctions by the US and EU force a shift from the army, or is the army on the contrary benefiting from the less concerned reaction from China? Frank Borman later was quoted by U.N. Secretary General U Thant as saying, “We saw the earth the size of a quarter and we recognized that there really is one world. Myanmar vs. Its Generals... On Feb. 1, Myanmar’s military staged a coup, overturning the results of the November 2020 elections and throwing the country’s top civilian leaders in jail on spurious charges. Since then, protests and government violence have escalated. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity. So in mid-December, he latched on to USDP allegations of massive electoral fraud. Pro-democracy protesters outside the Burmese embassy in Tokyo, Japan. 5–53–70 Jingumae, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-8925 Japan Tel: +81 3 5467 1212 Fax: +81 3 3499 2828. The Hidden History of Burma selected one of Foreign Affairs magazine's Top Books of 2020 and as one of the New York Times Critics Top Books of 2019 “ At once absorbing, illuminating, and humane, Thant Myint-U’s work traces the complex gearings of race, identity, and money with the perspective of a scholar and the intimacy of an insider. January 10, 1967 - U.N. Secretary-General U Thant expresses doubts that Vietnam is essential to the security of the West. The historian and former UN peacekeeper on why the military seized power and the prospects of a democratic path for the country. Might this weaken the military’s rule? At the same time, China will be eager not to be on the wrong side of public opinion. Trygve Lie, from Norway, 1946 … *** Does this suggest the military has miscalculated the attachment to democracy formed over the past decade? Get the New Statesman\'s Morning Call email. If anything, aid should be increased to protect people from the crisis. The army had been in power for over half a century and had withstood equally massive uprisings as well as armed insurrections, foreign invasions and decades of the toughest international sanctions possible. At the same time, it’s hard to see China agreeing to work with any outside state on a country it already sees as part of its own backyard. It’s an army that hasn’t hesitated to use lethal force again civilian protesters before, including Buddhist monks. The strikes by public sector workers have paralyzed the government. On March 21, 1971, United Nations Secretary-General U Thant spoke of a spaceship Earth on Earth Day, hereby referring to the ecosystem services the earth supplies to us, and hence our obligation to protect it (and with it, ourselves). These younger generals didn’t count on Aung San Suu Kyi’s party winning elections in 2015 yet accepted the results, leading to five years of unhappy cohabitation.